💉 Livsmed IPO Analysis: A 1 Trillion Won 'K-MedTech' Unicorn? (Valuation vs. Hype)
Prologue: Is this year-end IPO market for real?
Hello, everyone! I've been sighing at the sluggish stock market lately, but I brought some news that opened my eyes wide. Usually, December is considered "closing time" for the IPO market, right? I thought so too, planning to just organize my dividend stocks...
Suddenly, a contender claiming a '1 Trillion Won Market Cap' has appeared. It's <Livsmed>.
Unfamiliar name? I was like, "What is that?" at first, but after seeing their technology, I thought, "Wow, this is something." However, after digging into their financial statements, there were some puzzling points. So today, I'm going to break it down honestly from my perspective.
Here is 'Livsmed Investment Points' organized for my own study!
1. What does this company actually do? (ft. ArtiSential)
First, we need to see why this company is valued at 1 trillion won. The key is just one thing: a surgical instrument called 'ArtiSential'.
For those not interested in medical devices, let me explain it simply.
Usually, 'Da Vinci' dominates surgical robots, right? Performance is great, but it costs over $2.5 million per unit. Hospitals tremble at the price. On the other hand, general laparoscopic instruments are cheap, but they destroy the surgeon's wrists. Movement is stiff too.
Livsmed targeted exactly that middle ground.
They created a "Manual instrument that bends 90 degrees like a human hand but isn't expensive like a robot."
The reason I focused on this tech is 'Cost-effectiveness' and 'Insurance'. No matter how good the tech is, if it's expensive, it won't be used. But this is much cheaper than robotic surgery and has been covered by health insurance in Korea since 2019. It's a structure good for both hospitals and patients, so the spread speed is bound to be fast.
2. IPO Schedule Summary for Busy People
Even if the company is great, missing the schedule means nothing, right? Here is a summary to save in your calendar. Mid-December is the perfect time to subscribe while pretending to work. (Haha)
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Subscription | Dec 15 (Mon) ~ 16 (Tue) |
| Refund Date | Dec 18 (Thu) |
| Listing Date | Dec 24 (Wed) (Christmas Eve!) |
| Price Band | 44,000 ~ 55,000 KRW |
| Exp. Market Cap | Approx. 1.1 ~ 1.3 Trillion KRW |
| Underwriters | Samsung Sec, Mirae Asset Sec |
Listing on Christmas Eve? Will it be Santa's gift or a gloomy Christmas... You have to read until the end to decide.
3. But there's a lot of noise about 'This' (Fact Check)
The part that made me pause the most while researching was the 'Valuation Method'.
Livsmed is not making money yet. It's a loss-making company (Expected operating loss of -26.5 billion KRW in 2024).
So how did the 50,000 KRW price come out? They used the 'Technology Special Listing' cheat code.
📉 Current Performance: Deficit
📈 IPO Price Basis: "We will make 71 billion KRW net profit in 2027! We calculated based on that!"
Furthermore, they chose global giants like Medtronic and Stryker as comparison peers. Comparing a newborn growing fast to giants making trillions in revenue, and applying a PER of 45x...
Honestly, my thought is: It's a bit bold. It feels like pulling future value too much into the present. "We will hit the jackpot in 3 years, so buy expensive now!" As a conservative investor, I am slightly wary.
4. Why it's still attractive (Feat. Growth Potential)
So should I pass? Just when I thought that, positive signals caught me.
- Numbers are proving it (Explosive Growth): Although in deficit, sales growth cannot be ignored. Annual revenue has been increasing by 72% on average over the last 4 years. Unlike bio companies that live only on dreams, the speed of actually selling products is incredibly fast.
- Entering the US Market: They signed a contract with HPG, the largest purchasing agency in the US, paving the way to enter 1,800 hospitals. If US doctors use it, it becomes the global standard.
- Technology: World's first multi-joint handheld device (More angles than Intuitive Surgical!)
- Marketability: Cheaper than robots & Insurance covered. (Cost-performance King)
- Growth: Aiming for profit turnaround in 2026, overseas sales exploding.
5. Risks to Watch Out For (Must Read!)
I can't just say good things. If I were putting my money in, I would check these 3 things.
- 💣 Overhang (Supply Bomb) Worry: 32% of shares are tradable immediately after listing. It opens up to 57% after 3 months.
- 🔮 Earnings Too Far in Future: Since the price is calculated on 2027 estimates, if next year's performance is below expectations, the stock price could plummet.
- ⚖️ Litigation Risk: Patent lawsuits are not completely over. The company says they are prepared, but it's still nagging.
Epilogue: To Subscribe or Not?
Livsmed is undoubtedly a company that makes us proud with its technology. It shows a heavy presence among KOSDAQ technology special listing companies.
However, 'High IPO price based on future earnings' is a double-edged sword. I'm going to wait and watch the 'Institutional Demand Forecast' results until the end. Seeing how much 'Lock-up Agreement' institutions make will answer if this price is reasonable.
What do you think?
"Technology is overwhelming, so definitely GO?" OR "1 Trillion for a deficit company is too expensive?"
I'm curious about your thoughts! Please leave a comment, and I'll decide whether to subscribe based on your opinions too! :)
(If this was helpful, please leave a like! I'll come back with more useful info next time!)
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